Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.995266 13.491851 15.212927 17.365170 20.023548 23.253947 27.565335
2024-10-27 9.812972 11.531444 13.653660 16.538060 20.477416 25.873235 34.239084
2024-11-03 9.586192 11.731724 14.567328 18.758326 25.135562 35.182194 54.129205
2024-11-10 9.033890 11.370579 14.610651 19.706826 28.151619 43.147670 77.330947
2024-11-17 8.094347 10.341345 13.538862 18.745544 27.811910 45.147256 90.124561
2024-11-24 7.546071 9.792639 13.078340 18.633152 28.856793 50.178794 115.544901
2024-12-01 7.040429 9.249337 12.551018 18.305420 29.399568 54.376963 144.501553
2024-12-08 6.665872 8.862298 12.216047 18.241730 30.426877 60.223913 191.136753
2024-12-15 6.399668 8.612766 12.067133 18.475588 32.124093 68.816027 277.945600
2024-12-22 6.030687 8.175116 11.566597 17.982017 32.094091 72.458285 352.477949
2024-12-29 5.783212 7.909113 11.325978 17.947815 33.125468 80.268852 524.170751
2025-01-05 5.451702 7.488468 10.788531 17.262657 32.419127 81.620059 642.356592
2025-01-12 5.087131 7.009951 10.143717 16.346941 31.098909 80.618369 744.094965
2025-01-19 4.775170 6.601135 9.594675 15.574365 30.024861 80.260167 892.769702
2025-01-26 4.907280 6.919661 10.343174 17.590802 37.076627 124.395236 40327.127051
2025-02-02 4.856630 6.929458 10.535247 18.448849 41.264376 164.991566 NaN
2025-02-09 4.593044 6.563244 10.000321 17.579083 39.633526 162.531233 NaN
2025-02-16 4.442661 6.383152 9.803849 17.477241 40.593057 183.712052 NaN
2025-02-23 4.280493 6.174465 9.538455 17.180091 40.801343 199.736051 NaN
2025-03-02 4.157019 6.026715 9.379949 17.122312 41.883597 229.138924 NaN
2025-03-09 4.071163 5.940061 9.333435 17.334414 44.096437 283.520826 NaN
2025-03-16 3.921383 5.733875 9.038603 16.886599 43.550133 297.575143 NaN
2025-03-23 3.823439 5.615524 8.911332 16.855544 44.750001 350.811035 NaN